Investment Strategy

Investment Foundations

Utility Theory

More money allows you to satisfy more needs (utility).

But each dollar gives less happiness than the last one.

This is called ‘diminishing marginal utility’.

Define your own values and goals

Focus on achieving intrinsic goals consistent with your own values rather than extrinsic approval from others or financial success - especially for ‘achieving money worshippers’.

What are values, principles, and purpose?

Values

A quality or standard of behaviour that tell us what is ‘good’.

Expressed in general terms and focusses on what we value.

Often expressed in one or two words, such as “thriftiness” or “honesty”.

Principles

A specific rule governing behaviour that tell us what is ‘right’.

Specific and applied statements outlining how we may (or may not) achieve our values.

Often expressed in statements as “I’ll never …” or “I’ll always …”

Purpose

Provides our reason for being.

It explains why our values and principles are important.

Schwarts theory of basic values

  1. Universalism
  2. Tradition
  3. Conformity
  4. Achievement
  5. Stimulation
  6. Benevolence
  7. Security
  8. Self-direction
  9. Power
  10. Hedonism

What is Financial Independence?

A situation in which the income you are drawing from your investments is enough to cover your living expenses indefinitely.

This means that you no longer need to do paid work

Variations on FIRE (Financially Independent Retired Early)

  1. Fat FIRE
  1. Lean FIRE
  1. Barista FIRE
  1. Coast FIRE

3 Key Principles

  1. Consisteny ‘save to invest’ at least 20% of your income (before-tax).
  2. Avoid dumb investment decisions.
  3. Diversify across multiple financial strategies.

Asset Categories

In order of lower risk to higher risk:

  1. Cash - Transaction, Savings Account or CMT
  2. Fixed Interest - Term deposits, debentures or bonds
  3. Residential Property - Apartment, townhouse, duplex or house
  4. Commercial Property - Shop, office, Listed Property Trust (LPT)
  5. Australian Shares - Australian Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
  6. International Shares - Global Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

Cash

Once you have a home or investment loan with variable interest rate, you also get a mortgage offset account and redraw facility.

These are basically a ‘very high-interest’ low-risk cash investment.

Fixed Interest

Examples:

Key features:

Investment time horizon

What to invest in fixed interest?

Residential Property

Examples:

Key features:

Investment time horizon:

Why invest in residential property?

Commercial Property

Examples:

Key features:

Investment time horizon:

Why invest in commercial property?

Beware!

Beware of lending to commercial property companies via debentures or unsecured notes

They often have nice and ‘stable’ sounding names.

These property companies usually have a lot of debt on balance sheet.

When the property market turns and asset prices fall, equity quickly drops to zero and investors almost everything!

Australian Shares

Examples:

Key features:

Investment time horizon

Why invest in Australian Shares?

International Shares

Examples:

Key features:

Investment time horizon

Why invest in International shares?

Relatively Mainstream

  1. Hybrid securities
  1. Energy assets
  1. Infrastructure
  1. Hedge funds
  1. Private equity
  1. Venture capital

Non-Mainstream Investment

Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin)

Commodities (Gold or Oil)

Foreign exchange (USD)

Social and Copy Trading Platforms (eToro)

Contracts for Difference (CFD)

Financial Leverage

Two types of leverage

  1. Operating leverage
  1. Financial leverage

Financial Leverage and Investments

  1. Your first home
  1. An investment property
  1. Your brain (via education)
  1. A diversified portfolio of shares

For whom is financial leverage appropriate?

Positive v negative gearing

Tax implications of financial leveraged investment

Positive gearing

Negative gearing

Warning

Too many people focus on tax implications of investment and end up choosing dumb investments!

Positive v negative cash flow

Cash flow implications of financial leveraged investment

Positive cash flow

Negative cash flow

Not necessarily the same as positive or negative gearing due to depreciation and other non-cash expenses (accrued interest)

A nice situation can be negatively geared but positive cash flow!

Borrowing to Invest

Financial Leverage and Investments

  1. Your first home
  1. An investment property
  1. Your brain (via education)
  1. A diversified portfolio of shares

Best to leverage with

Investment loan using property as collateral. Why?

  1. Low interest rates (compared to other loans)
  2. No margin calls
  3. Banks prefer property as collateral
  4. Easy to obtain if you have paid off some of the mortgage and property has gone up in value.

But if investments fall in value sharply and you cannot make loan repayments then you could lose your house!

What if you don’t have property?

You want to borrow to invest in shares but don’t have property?

DON’T use CFDs, Futures, or derivatives.

Consider using a margin loan. But be conservative please!

What is a Margin Loan?

Different from an investment loan that has property as collateral. Why?

  1. Uses the shares as collateral on the loan.
  2. Offered by banks through stockbrokers (such as Commsec).
  3. Higher interest rates than property loans.
  4. Subject to a ‘margin call’ if the shares drop sharply in value.
  5. Flexible payment options such as ‘capitalising interest’.
  1. Can be very easy to obtain if you have a good income.

Capitalising Interest

You are charged interest on the margin loan

The interest is still an allowable deduction for tax purposes.

What is an LVR?

Loan to value ration

LVR = Debt / Assets = Margin Loan / Market Value of Shares

If value of shares is $100,000 and margin loan is $50,000 then: LVR = 50,000 / 100,000 = 50%

A portfolio has three different LVRs

  1. Current LVR
  1. Base LVR
  1. Margin Call LVR

The Dreaded ‘Margin Call’

You have exceeded the Margin Call LVR because you borrowed too aggressively and then:

  1. A sharp decline in share prices over a short-period of time (usually)
  2. A slow decline in share prices over a long-period of time.
  3. Flat prices but capitalised interest caused LVR to increase slowly.

Solution:

  1. Use your financial slack to pay down margin loan.
  2. Sell shares

What is a safe LVR?

Many diversified ETFs have a base LVR of about 75%

You need to be able to handle a 50% fall in market values.

If prior to fall in market prices

If the assets fall in value by 50%:

LVR robustness

How much can the value of your share portfolio fall by based on a starting current LVR if margin call LVR = 80%?

LVR 70% - Market fall 12.5% LVR 60% - Market fall 25% LVR 50% - Market fall 37.5% LVR 40% - Market fall 50.0% LVR 30% - Market fall 62.5%

Remember

Longevity and Sequencing Risk

Longevity Risk

Risk that you will outlive your retirement savings:

  1. Investing too conservatively … low returns and slow capital erosion.
  2. Investing too aggressively … exposed to fast fall in stock market.
  3. Relationship breakdown … asset redistribution and higher expenses.

Sequencing Risk

Risk that the order and timing of investments and returns is unfavourable.

It is most significant during last 10 years of accumulation phase and first 10 years of retirement income phase.

You need to watch out for this between ages 50 and 75.

Sequencing and Longevity Risk Strategies

  1. Age Pension may provide a ‘cushion’ as assets and income fall.
  2. Accept and adapt … cut back in living expenses.
  3. Remember that declining health could mean more frugal lifestyle.
  4. May be able to obtain some financial help from family (children).
  5. Use conservative assumptions when forecasting.
  6. Diversify and avoid speculation (especially by bored retirees).
  7. Invest next year of retirement income in cash.
  8. Invest next 4 years of retirement income in fixed interest.
  9. Buy a lifetime annuity if interest rates are high (transfer risk).

Risk Profile

Higher expected returns require higher risk

The higher the targeted expected return

Can you keep your eyes on the long term goal:

Can you handle the short-term volatility?

Can you show self-control and avoid selling in a panic?

Investment Risk Profile Tools

Help you to understand how you feel about risk and how you might behave when experiencing losses.

Provide guidelines on how to allocate investment funds amongst major asset categories (cash, fixed interest, shares, property).

Risk profile influenced by values, personality, experiences, and education.

Risk Profile Types

Tend to be very simplistic and try to push people into these different categories:

  1. Very conservative
  1. Conservative
  1. Average investor
  1. Growth investor
  1. Aggressive growth investor.

Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)

Decides an appropriate long-term asset allocation.

Rebalance to the original allocation periodically.

Does not require ability to ‘time the market’.

Focuses attention on long-term investment strategy.

Helps to avoid human bias to speculate on short-term ‘opportunities’.

Types of Asset Allocation

  1. Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)
  1. Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
  1. Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA)

We will focus on Strategic Asset Allocation

Some things to consider…

  1. Investment time horizon
  1. Risk profile
  1. Life stage
  1. Investment goals
  1. Financial literacy and experience

People with lower financial literacy…

  1. Less likely to plan for retirement.
  2. Less likely to hold shares.
  3. More likely to hold undiversified portfolio.
  4. Less able to estimate the time needed to pay off a credit card balance.
  5. More likely to incur fees for late payments.
  6. Exceeding borrowing limits.
  7. More likely to pay higher interest rate on their mortgage.
  8. More likely to ignore or misunderstand financial literacy initiatives.
  9. Less likely to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser.

Deciding on your strategic asset allocation

  1. Cash buffer is in ‘cash’
  1. Financial slack is in ‘cash’ and/or ‘fixed interest’.
  1. Funds ‘required’ within 5 years in low-risk investments.
  1. Determine strategic asset allocation for remaining investments
  1. Consider adding financial leverage when appropriate.

FPA Portfolio Construction Process

FPA is the Financial Planning Association of Australia

  1. Understanding the client’s objectives.
  2. Understanding the client’s risk tolerance.
  3. Determine the strategic asset allocation (SAA).
  4. Testing the appropriateness of the SAA.
  5. Discuss the trade-offs, implications, and alternatives.
  6. Determining the investment process that suits the client’s needs.
  7. Discuss the investment structure that meets the client’s specific circumstances and preferences.
  8. Recommending specific investments and structures.
  9. Ongoing reviews.

Investment Tips

  1. Save to Invest
  1. Invest in what you understand
  1. Go with mainstream assets
  1. Understand the risks
  1. Diversify
  1. Diversify over time
  1. Invest based on investment time horizon
  1. Avoid speculation
  1. Build your knowledge and experience
  1. Take action

Financial and Investment Strategy

Phase 1a: Extreme Saving

  1. Obtain a graduate position earning a basic full-time salary.
  2. Radical surgery to cut living expenses so you can save 70%.
  3. Build minimum of $5,000 cash buffer in transaction account.
  4. Build minimum of $10,000 financial slack in savings.
  5. Save an additional $10,000 and invest into ETF that tracks ASX200 (or in my case DHHF through CMC markets).
  6. Regularly invest additional savings into ETF keeping records.

Objective is to build up $20,000 in your ETF.

Phase 1b: Add Financial Leverage

Once you have $20,000 saved in your ETF…

  1. Add a margin loan to your share trading account.
  2. Borrow $10,0000 using margin loan and invest in ETF (LVR is 33%).
  3. Capitalise the interest.
  4. Continue saving additional funds into ETF.
  5. With time and experience, adjust LVR up to 40%.

Objective is to build ETF to $100,000.

Phase 2a: Buy First Property

Once you built your ETF to $100,000 ($60,000 in equity, $40,000 margin loan, 40% LVR)

  1. Apply for $500,000 home loan with parent security guarantee.
  2. Buy older non-trendy 2 beroom apartment for $500,000.
  3. Rent out second room to a border on a ‘non-commercial basis’.

Phase 2b: Build Share Portfolio

  1. Only pay the minimum monthly payments on home loan.
  2. Continue to add savings to your ETF investment.

Objective is to build ETF to $300,000 and have zero dwelling cost. - with a margin loan of $120,000 so your equity is $180,000 (40% LVR)

Phase 3: Zero dwelling costs

We now have no ‘net’ home loan payments.

Our salary has increased at work due to hard work and promotions.

We have kept expenses under control and can save 30% or more of income.

Your friends are all drowning in home loan payments and fixed expenses.

You have a lot of good alternatives!

Phase 3a: Aggressively pay down home loan

If you are happy living in your 2 bedroom apartment…

Consider obtaining an ‘investment loan’ against property to reduce your margin loan to zero and lower interest expenses.

Phase 3b: Aggressively build share portfolio

If you are happy living in your 2 bedroom apartment…

Continue building share portfolio to build investment income.

Salary sacrifice into superannuation to build financial independence.

Consider obtaining an ‘investment loan’ against property to reduce your margin loan to zero and lower interest expenses.

Phase 4: Financial Freedom

Achieve financial independence primarily using super

  1. Salary sacrifice into super
  2. Gradually move investments into super as you approach retirement.
  3. Create a TTR pension at age 60.
  4. Move TTR into account based pension when you permanently retire.

Phase 4: Freedom a bit earlier (FIRE)

  1. Live a content and frugal life (Lean or Barista FIRE)
  1. Build a large investment property portfolio (FAT or Coast FIRE)
  1. Build a large share portfolio (FAT or Coast FIRE)
  1. Build a profitable business (FAT or Coast FIRE)