Investing in Shares

What are Shares?

Valuing Shares

Investment Risk

Portfolio Theory

Investing $1000 (F) $1000 in Fixed Interest (Risk free)

(M) $1000 in Market Index

(A) $500 in Fixed interest $500 in Market Index

(B) Borrow $1000 at Fixed rate invest $2000 in market index

Implications

  1. Both expected return and risk need to be considered.
  2. Diversification reduces total risk without necessarily reducing expected returns.
  3. A broad Market Index often provides a pretty good trade-off between risk and return.
  4. Investing in a mix of Fixed Interest and the Market Index provides a moderate level of risk
  5. Borrowing money to invest in the Market Index provides a better trade-off between risk and return than speculating on stocks and timing the market for those who are targeting much higher returns.

Investing in Shares

Buying Shares Directly

You buy and sell shares through a broker (usually online)

Fees are usually about $10 to $20 per transaction

You must research companies thoroughly.

You must consider both expected return and risk.

You must diversify to reduce risk (usually 10 to 20)

Most investors underperform in either return or risk.

Many investors slide into short-term speculative behaviour.

Managed funds (mutual funds)

Offered by banks and investment banks (fund managers)

A professionally designed portfolio of shares or fixed interest promoted through networks of financial advisers

Attempt to ‘pick stocks’ and ‘time the market’.

Management fees (usually 1% to 2% per year)

Entry fees (usually 0% to 4% of investment)

Usually pay ongoing commissions to financial advisers

A large choice of funds available (1,000s!)

Consistent outperformance in return and risk is debatable.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

They look like an ordinary share listed on a stock exchange but they track an index.

You can achieve good diversification with just one share!

Very low fees compared to mutual funds (managed funds)

Pay no commission to advisers (so they don’t like them!)

Available for many different indices

Less temptation to speculate (pick stocks or time the market)

Shares in Australia

Dividends at tax time

You receive a cash dividend of $700.

Dividend notice advises ‘franking credits’ are $300.

You report your income as $700 + $300 = $1000 (even though you only received $700 in cash!)

Calculate tax at your marginal rate (say 38.5%) = $385.

Report the ‘franking credit’ as a tax rebate on tax return.

You only pay $385 - $300 = $85 in tax.

Total tax received by government is $300 in corporate tax plus $85 in personal income tax = $385 = 38.5% tax.

Capital gains at tax time

Cost price = Purchase price + brokerage fees

Disposal price = Sale price - brokerage fees

Gain = Disposal price - cost price

Add this gain to your assessable income.

Taxed at your marginal rate of tax + medicare levy.

If held shares > 1 year then only 1/2 of capital gain is assessable.

You only pay it when you sell the shares, so invest for the long term and defer tax indefinitely!

Non-Mainstream Investments

Try to avoid this.

Crypto-currencies (Bitcoin)

Most crypto-currencies have little or no ‘value in use’ since they don’t work well as a medium of exchange.

They are also not a ‘financial asset’ because they do not generate cash flows.

They are a ‘speculative investment’ = gambling.

Also … mining crypto produces unnecessary carbon emissions and this is unnecessarily contributing to climate change.

Listed Commercial Property

Large trusts that invest in a diversified portfolio of commercial property listed on stock exchange.

Often called REITs or LPTs

Receive regular rent so they have regular payments.

But they often have large amounts of debt.

In a financial crisis, they can become worthless quickly.

If you want to invest in these, invest in an ETF that tracks an index.

Listed Investment Companies (LICs)

Companies that invest in other companies listed on the stock exchange.

Buying shares in that company gives you diversified portfolio of other companies.

Like a mutual fund listed on stock exchange.

Different from Exchange Traded Funds because LICs try to pick stocks and sectors rather than track and index.

Derivatives

’Created’ financial instruments ie you don’t really own anything physical.

Their values are ‘derived’ from other ‘real’ assets.

Normally used by large companies and financial institutions to hedge (reduce) risks that they face in the ordinary course of their business.

Used by a small number of investors to gamble on changes in share prices (and other assets).

Examples include: options, futures, warrants, CFDs..

Futures

Agree to buy/sell an asset at a future time for a set price.

Make money as prices rise by buying futures.

Make money as prices fall by selling futures.

Requires no upfront payment.

‘Marked-to-market’ daily and as prices move, you receive money or pay money from your account.

Supposed to be used by companies to offset their risks.

Gambling investors use them to make (and lose) lots of money quickly.

Contracts For Difference (CFDs)

Offered by stockbrokers and derivative traders

Are similar to futures but there is no fixed term.

Allow you to make a profit or loss from fluctuations in share prices without actually owning the shares.

Investor pays/receives difference between the price of the share when CFD is opened and when it is closed.

Receive all dividends on the shares.

Only need to pay small proportion of value into account.

Marked-to-market so you need to pay money if your position loses money.

Options

Call options

Put options

Employee stock option plans (ESOPs) can be good!

Foreign Exchange

Some people speculate on exchange rate movements

This is called the ‘carry trade'

'FX Binary options’ are popular - a very bad idea!!

Over 1-3 years then exchange rate movements influenced by relative interest rates.

Over 3+ years then exchange rate movements influenced by a lot of factors, including relative inflation rates, demand for exports and imports, attractiveness for foreign investments…

Very difficult for professional hedge funds to pick the direction of exchange rates… so don’t try it!

Commodities

Some people speculate on movements of the gold price and other commodities.

These are not investments since these assets generate no cash flow.

Their value is only ‘in use’ by demand and supply.

Examples of gold:

Gold price in the long-run should tend towards the cost of extraction (roughly US$1,000 per ounce)

Copy Trading Platforms

Popularised by app-based trading platforms

Encourage short-term speculation (gambling)

Encourage leveraged investments

Encourage automatic trades following ‘celebrity investors’

Encourage trading in commodities, cryptocurrency, and forex.

These are a CANCER on quality long-term investment based on fundamentals.